U.S. 15's Five Options
State Highway Administration offers choices for improving U.S. 15, local officials urge action
The State Highway Administration (SHA) is showing five alternatives for improving Frederick’s Main Road, U.S.15 from the I-70 interchange in the south to MD26. The widening options go from $115 million (m) to as much as $260m in cost.
Elected officials got a preview last Wednesday evening, May 24 in Winchester Hall. Those potentially affected should be getting letters in the next few weeks. Three whole properties would need to be bought and the houses razed under one of the five alternative schemes, and one whole property under two other schemes. Other adjacent property owners may need to give up ‘slivers’ or narrow edges of their yards.
The meeting in Winchester Hall was the kick-off to a Federally-required Project Planning Study that is aimed at choosing one of the five alternate schemes by the winter. Refinement of that ‘Preferred Alternative’ would be submitted to the public for comment late 2018 or early 2019 and federal permitting completed a year later. Detailed design and actual construction would at best take four to five years. So the improved road would be complete around 2025. But the timeline depends quite a lot on how long it takes to reach a consensus. Will people agree which is the best scheme?
At the Winchester Hall meeting local officials expressed dismay at the long timeline for the project. Democrat and Republican officials alike stressed the urgency of the project and people’s weariness with studies that go nowhere.
State highway officials said there is no way around federal law that requires the two or three year process of study, public outreach and consideration of impacts, starting with a description of present conditions and laying out “all feasible alternatives” for fixing problems.
State Highway analysis of existing conditions along US 15 between I-70 and MD26 has looked at data on twenty merge and weave points along the four miles of highway during morning and evening peaks, making forty score points. (Merges are where entering traffic has to join the stream of traffic already on the mainline, and ‘weaving’ is the term for crossover movements, lane changes needed when some motorists in left lanes need to move right to exit further along while entering traffic going further up the road wants to cross to the left lane.)
Forty critical points (20 places, AM and PM peak) were scored on a standard highway scale, A through F with level of service A being best and F fail or worst looking at morning and evening peaks. There is at present only one of the 40 that gets an A score (Motter on-ramp northbound,) whereas there are 12 Bs, 21 Cs, four Ds, zero Es and two Fs (at U.S. 40 northbound.) But we ain’t seen nothing yet.
In the design year 2040 with modest average traffic growth and no changes in the road (Alt 1, No Build) there would be 25 Fs, 4 Es, 3 Ds, 5 Cs, 2 Bs. There would still be the one lonely A.
So, from 34 scores A, B or C out of 40 now, the road would degrade to a mere eight good scores in the 2040 design year. And under this No Build, alternate Ds, Es, and Fs would go from six scores along the road now to 32 by 2040.
Safety? Crash numbers are highly correlated with congestion, being clearly highest in the most congested stretch between Jefferson (U.S. 340) and Patrick St (U.S. 40).
What to do about it?
The State Highway Administration is putting five alternatives or alternates up for consideration, apart from the ‘No Build,’ or leave-it-as-it-is which is labeled Alternate 1 or Alt 1. The others are:
Alt 2 (cost $115m) Transportation System Management sticks with the basic 2 x 2-lane format we now have, relying heavily on ‘ramp meters’ or stop lights on entry ramps, variable speed limits on overhead gantry signs and warnings of congestion. It also lengthens the busier acceleration (accel) lanes after entry ramps, and the deceleration (decel) lanes before exit ramps, in order to try to smooth traffic flows.
In some cases accel/decel lanes are linked up forming what the engineers term an auxiliary lane — like the one completed last fall on the short northbound stretch between the Motter inbound ramp and the beginning of MD26.
Alt 3A and Alt 3B are the next step up in cost. They involve a new shoulder lane to be used by peak hour traffic only, called a ‘hard running shoulder’. Alt 3A (cost $210m) locates the new lane on the inside, paving the roadway both directions towards the center, while Alt 3B locates the extra shoulder lanes on the outside. Overhead signs would allow vehicles to use the shoulder lane in peak hours while outside the peak hours it would be reserved for breakdowns, police pullovers, snow etc. Only place the concept is in use is a section of I-66 in northern Virginia.
Alt 4 (cost $210m) and Alt 5 (cost $260m) add a full-time travel lane to make the highway three lanes each direction throughout. They would also provide full-time shoulders, about 10 feet right side and 4 feet left side. Alt 4 paves mostly inwards in what is now grass median, while Alt 5 paves mainly outwards, on the outside of the existing pavement. Since the present roadway doesn’t have a full width (10 foot) shoulder lane right side, Alt 5 involves as much as 18 feet of extra pavement width in places.
Alt 5 could require three ‘displacements’ of homes compared to one for Alt 3A, the outside widening for peak hour shoulder running, and also one displacement for the Alt 2 which relies heavily on accel/decel lane extensions on the outside. Alt 4 and the Alt 3A, the inward or median build options do not involve any complete takings of homes, although some ‘slivers’ or narrow edge portions of land will have to be bought.
Historic properties are most affected by Alt 5 — Schifferstadt watch out — but all the build options have some effects, albeit smaller. Alt 5 also takes the most forest (4.6 acres) and park (2.6 acres).
SHA officials at the May 24 meeting emphasized that their calculations of impacts are likely maximums. Various avoidance and mitigation measures have not yet been considered. Paved shoulders can be pinched in at sensitive points, storm water retained further away on unbuilt land, grassed swales designed more compactly etc. Sound-walls sometimes require extra space.
After the meeting the city's Director of Public Works Zach Kershner told state officials he’d like to explore a coordinated approach to design of new stormwater management at the city creeks traversed by US15 — as opposed to separate city and state highway facilities. Combined stormwater management could reduce U.S. 15 property acquisition needs and overall cost, he suggested.
Traffic improvement
SHA analysis shows Alt 2 and Alt 3B don’t measure up in terms of traffic flow and have over 11 failure scores by the design year. In stark contrast Alts 3A, 4 and 5 all keep traffic flowing at 45 mph in peak hours. They work to prevent regular day by day congestion. Incident-caused congestion is another matter — where safety comes in. Alt 2 reduces crashes an estimated 3%, Alt 3A 20%, Alt 3B no change. Alts 4 and 5 provide a 40% reduction in crashes each.
Odds on favorite — my opinion
Alt 4 has to be the odds-on favorite in this race. The cheaper ones just don’t do the job, either in terms of getting traffic to move smoothly. And they don’t improve safety much. Part-time use of shoulders is difficult and expensive to manage. And peak-hours are the time when shoulders are needed most to handle incidents. Police ambulances and tow trucks will have trouble getting to accidents. In the Washington/Baltimore region such peak hours shoulder use is used only on I-66 in Northern Virginia where there are physical constraints on widening we don’t have in Frederick.
Anyone who drives U.S. 15 in Frederick knows that with just two lanes it can slow at odd times during the day and evenings. A third full-time lane is needed, which excludes Alts 3A and 3B and leaves us with Alts 4 and 5.
Alt 4, the third lane on the inside, does everything Alt 5 does but at less cost and with fewer impacts on neighbors and nature.
Everyone can weigh in on this subject and learn more June 13 at TJ High 6pm to 8pm. They’ll have all the maps and charts the walls and state highway officials on hand to discuss it. The presentation given to local officials in Winchester Hall will appear soon, we’re told, on the SHA website via this page, or this.
Peter Samuel is a journalist who has written extensively on roads issues including for Toll Roads News (which he founded,) Reason magazine and Reason Public Policy Institute, Forbes, and Maryland Public Policy Institute. He has lived in downtown Frederick for about 20 years and uses U.S. 15 frequently.
