Early Poll Shows Tight CE Race
Early candidate polling gives "snapshot" of 2018 County Executive Race
A recent poll asked Frederick County voters, who they would vote for, among three candidates, for County Executive in 2018. Candidates pitted against each other included incumbent CE Jan Gardner (D), now in her first term, Del. Kathy Afzali [R-Dist. 4], and Council Member Kirby Delauter [R-Dist. 5.]
The poll, conducted by Targeted Creative Communications of Alexandria, Virginia, polled voters selected based on party breakdown in the 2014 race, where Gardner beat Blaine Young by eight points, with 54 percent of the vote to his 46 percent. Of those polled, 850 voters answered the questions.
In the poll, Gardner edges Afzali out by a hair, 43.4 % to Afzali'a 42.8 percent, while 13.7 percent are “unsure.” Gardner outpaces Delauter by a large margin, according to the poll, with 47.7 percent to Gardner, and 39.4 percent to Delauter, and 12.9 percent “unsure.”
Republican Regina Williams, the only candidate formally filed to run for CE was only recognized by 3 – 6 percent of those polled, according to poll organizers.
The poll has some value, but without full disclosure of the methodology used, it’s difficult to fully analyze the results, according to Mileah Kromer, Ph.D, associate professor of political science at Goucher College. Kromer is also the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center and oversees the Goucher Poll.
Most candidate-sponsored polls do not usually share much beyond the results, Kromer said.
“It’s localized polling, so we take what we can get,” Kromer said. “This gives Frederick County a really preliminary snapshot, with a caveat that it is impossible to fully discern results without a full methodology statement.”
If a candidate does well in a candidate-sponsored poll, it’s smart campaign strategy to share the results, Kromer said. Candidates usually do early polling to give themselves a buzz, and a way of entering the primary in earnest.
At this stage, a poll is one tool, one piece of information that combined with other campaign activity, can draw attention to the candidate’s campaign. “I would weigh early internal polls the way I would view any other piece of information, “ Kromer said, “as part of a larger story, not the story.”
Neither Gardner nor Delauter responded to requests for comment.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is the leading professional organization of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S. AAPOR’s website has useful information for determining a legitimate poll from “fake polling.”
From the website:
Political campaigns routinely sponsor legitimate “message-testing” surveys that are used by campaign consultants to test out the effectiveness of various possible campaign messages or campaign ad content, often including negative messages. Political message-testing surveys may sometimes be confused with fake polling, but they are very different. One way to tell is that message-testing surveys exhibit the characteristics of a legitimate survey, such as:
At the beginning of the call, the interviewer clearly identifies the call center actually making the calls. (However, legitimate political polling firms will often choose not to identify the client who is sponsoring the research, be it a candidate or a political party, since that could bias the survey results.)
The interview contains more than a few questions.
The questions usually ask about more than one candidate or mention both sides of an issue.
Questions, usually near the end of the interview, ask respondents to report demographic characteristics such as age, education level, and party identification.
The survey is based on a random sample of voters.
The number of respondents falls within the range of legitimate surveys, typically between 400 and 1500 interviews.
